Forecast Viewer Information
Flood early detection up to 30 days in advance
Forecasting simulations are run every day using the latest ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (ENS) and a cascade of hydrological models.
This results in 51 possible ensemble streamflow predictions for the selected forecast horizon (i.e., 30 days in the current setting).
For reporting points, the ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) time series are plotted versus the forecast horizon.
In order to provide a fast overview of the precipitation forecast, 4 maps of accumulated rainfall are produced.
- Probability of exceeding 50/150/300 mm of accumulated rainfall over the forecast range of 10 days for the ensemble ECMWF forecast
- Amount of accumulated rainfall over the forecast range of 10 days for the median of the ensemble ECMWF forecast (left figure)
Threshold exceedance maps and Reporting points
Summary threshold exceedance maps are showing the maximum probability of exceeding the 5 and 20 year return period thresholds within the forecast horizon.
Reporting points are chosen in the river network where a high flood probability is detected.
- Yellow is assigned to points with ESP mean between 2 and 5 year return period
- Red is assigned to points with ESP mean between 5 and 20 year return period
- Purple is assigned to points with ESP mean above 20 year return period
Predictions time series and persistence diagrams
At each point, Ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) time series are plotted versus the forecast horizon, together with persistence diagrams showing the probability of exceeding the three return period thresholds (2/5/20 year return periods) for each day of simulation and the evolution over the latest consecutive forecasts.